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어제 했던 이야기를 다시 한번 정리한다. 메모 차원에서 급하게 적는 것이니 - 항상 드리는 말씀이지만 이 블로그에 적는 글은 경제에 관한 교과서가 절대(!) 아니다 - 개념상의 오류가 있으면 지적해주시기 바란다. 이 주제는 향후 또 다른 글을 통해 계속 보완해나갈 수 있도록 하겠다. 신용은 파생상품에 의해 “창조”되지 않는다. 신용창출은 (본원적 예금이 들어오고 나가는 여수신 기능이 가능한) 은행의 지급준비제도를 통해서만이 가능하다. 그리고 파생상...
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말씀하신 내용은 결국 어떤 면에서 보자면 파생상품의 본질에 관한 것이라기보다는 금융시장 자체의 개략적인 문제점, 즉 탈규제, 유동화, 증권화 경향의 문제점을 두드러지게 강조한 부분이라고 할 수 있습니다.
CDS에 대해서도 사실 기존의 채권에서 스프레드를 분리한, 일종의 보험과 크게 다르지 않은 상품이랄 수 있겠습니다. 이 상품에 대해서 엄격한 자기자본 비율 규제랄지 신용평가에 있어 객관성과 엄밀성이 부여되었다면 그것은 그리 문제가 되지 않았겠죠. 즉 더 크게 보아 이는 시스템의 문제였고 그 중에서 파생상품은 그들 스스로가 그랬던 것처럼 위기의 도관체 역할이었다고 할 것입니다.
파생상품역시 많은 종류가 있는데 제가 지적한 글을 쓴 이가 '보장'이나 '스왑'보다는 파생상품의 또 다른 분야라 할 수 있는 유동화/증권화 상품이 레버리지에 대한 무규제, 신용평가기관의 전문성 결여 등이 결합하면서 신용이 가공할 정도로 창출(말씀하신 M3죠. 여기까지 화폐개념을 확장한다면 저도 화폐창출이라는 표현을 동의합니다. 물론 예금하고 대출하니 잠재 구매력이 2배가 되었다는 소리는 여전히 반대하고)된 거라고 할 수 있겠죠.(이런 부분까지 쓰려다 사실 귀차니즘 때문에... -_-; ) 특히 금융의 세계화는 이러한 경향을 가속화시켰다고 할 수 있습니다.
결론적으로 현재의 가공의 신용창출의 주범을 굳이 들라면 레버리지 그 자체(이건 금융자본의 고유속성이니 일단 제외하고), 그 와중에도 BIS비율에서 예외를 인정받은 투자은행, 이들을 포함한 1차 기관의 자산유동화(특히 모기지 부동산 자산), 이 상품을 뭣도 모르면서 투자우량등급으로 평가한 신용평가기관, 그 상품을 날름 받아먹은 전 세계 투자자(소버린펀드, 헤지펀드, 투자/상업은행, 간접투자펀드... 근데 저 같아도 사겠습니다.)등이라 할 수 있겠죠. 그리고 아무리 가공할 가상의 신용이 창출된다 할지라도 결국 진성화폐나 미재무부채권을 보유하고 있는, 발판이 튼튼한 전 세계 투자자들이 이 투전판에 가세하지 않으면 별무 소용이었겠죠.
결국 제가 레디앙의 글을 비판하는 이유는 파생상품이 '나 홀로' 신용을 창출한 것처럼 설명하는 - 크게 보아 부분적으로 옳으나 짜깁기나 따 붙이기의 인상이 강한 - 그 무모함이라 할 수 있습니다.
여하튼 두서없이 이야기했는데요. 말씀해주신 내용이나 제가 말한 내용도 하나하나 뜯어서 이야기하자면 엄청 이야기 많이 해야 할 주제이니까 여기까지만 답변 드리죠.
추:CDS의 유형도 다양한 종류가 있을 것이고 예를 든 것은 가장 원초적인 형태로 설명하다보니 대출이라고 표현했습니다. 사실 대출과 채권매입은 같은 뜻이죠. ![]()
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